Sistem Prediksi Produksi Kelapa Sawit Berbasis Gradio Menggunakan Algoritma Regresi Linear Berganda
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.47065/bulletincsr.v6i2.994Keywords:
Multiple Linear Regression; Production Prediction; Oil Palm; Model Evaluation; GradioAbstract
The instability of oil palm production often leads to discrepancies between production targets and actual outputs, thereby necessitating an accurate prediction model to support operational planning. This study aims to develop an oil palm production prediction model and to identify the most influential variables affecting production outcomes as a basis for data-driven decision-making. The model was developed using the Multiple Linear Regression method based on historical data from 2020–2024, consisting of 60 monthly observations with variables including number of trees, land area, rainfall, number of fruit bunches, and plant age. The research stages included data preprocessing, variable selection through testing several feature combinations, model development, and performance evaluation using the coefficient of determination (R²), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Squared Error (MSE), and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The results indicate that the combination of number of trees, land area, number of fruit bunches, and plant age produced the best performance, with an R² value of 0.85 on the training data and 0.81 on the testing data. The MAE values were 125,307 kg and 176,984 kg, the MSE values were 28,870,838,455 kg² and 52,809,954,662 kg², and the RMSE values were 169,914 kg and 229,804 kg, respectively. Based on the regression coefficients, the number of fruit bunches was identified as the most dominant variable, with a coefficient value of 637,720 kg. The model was subsequently implemented using the Python Gradio library in the form of an interactive interface to support production planning effectiveness and minimize the risk of inaccurate decision-making in oil palm plantation management.
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